The U.S. dollar has hit a multi-year high against almost every currency in the world at various points this year. Since then, the trade-weighted dollar has pulled back and then rallied up again. However, it has struggled to make new highs in spite of the increased probability that the long-anticipated lift-off in the Fed Funds rate will commence in December. This pattern, together with a changing outlook for the fundamental drivers and extremely bullish sentiment, suggests a major top is forming for the greenback. If so, it could be a game changer in many ways. But a falling dollar over the next year is not the consensus view - not by a long shot . . .

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