The surprise outcome of the 2016 U.S. presidential election has led to widespread speculation about its effect on the global capital markets outlook and numerous specific investment themes. Assuming that the Jill Stein-led recount efforts or the final electoral college votes do not reverse the results, there is no doubt that the road ahead has unequivocally changed, and looking for change-driven themes is MRP’s mantra. Clearly, this presidential election was a game changer on many levels.
Nonetheless, we say speculation because it is totally unclear at this point, even with a Republican majority in Congress, how much the Trump agenda – in particular his pro-growth economic plans – will in fact become reality. Steven Mnuchin, Treasury Secretary nominee, has said the priorities for the economy are taxes, regulatory, trade, and infrastructure. Moreover, defense, energy independence, immigration, and the replacement of Obamacare are likely to be front-runners as well. So, we assume these will be the focus in the first 100 days. But only time will tell what makes its way through Congress . . .