The Trump administration’s recent push for tariffs on everything from technology to commodities is revving up global discussions of a trade war. However, what is less clear is how much bargaining power the US holds, as well as who will feel the tight squeeze of protectionism. Fears of a global trade war have roiled the markets, as major economies and trade partners have announced their own counter-tariffs against the United States. As dramatic as it all sounds, the reality is that nobody on any side of the multilateral bargaining table wants tariffs, not even the U.S. administration which sees tariffs as a bargaining tool. Recent moves suggest the real deal-making is about to start . . .

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