2018 has been a challenging year for soft commodities, as evidenced by the performance of the Invesco Agriculture ETF (DBA) which is down 8.5% year-to-date. Bountiful harvests combined with the uncertainty of global trade disputes have created short-term disruptions that are clouding the outlook for many agricultural commodities. Trade disturbances aside, two commodities – sugar and cacao (“cocoa”) – have managed to stand out from the rest due to secular shifts emerging around the world. The world is dealing with a massive sugar glut as slowing demand and booming production lead to record stockpiles. Sugar’s bear market contrasts with cocoa’s rise on the global arena . . .

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