France Elections Show Left-Right Polarization Rising as Center Bleeds Seats, Faces Tough Choice on Coalition

The second round of a French snap election has managed to fend off a surge in support behind President Emmanuel Macron’s right wing foes, but will now force his Ensemble alliance to find a way to govern with an even smaller hold on the country’s parliament. The left wing NFP alliance ate away a large chunk of Ensemble’s representation in the National Assembly, winning it a plurality of 180 seats out of a total 577. Macron could potentially forge an alliance with the leftist parties and form a majority government or simply deal with a hung legislature that is deeply divided. 

Though elements of Ensemble and the NFP did form a loose alliance to consolidate their candidates and prevent the right wing RN from taking the most seats in the assembly, it is difficult to ascertain how much ground Macron is willing to concede to NFP now. Both RN and NFP present threats to Ensemble’s efforts to slash the swelling French deficit that is well beyond the EU’s allowable limits. Perceived political instability may be playing a role in the underperformance of French equities throughout 2024.

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In somewhat of a shock election result, French voters propelled the left-wing Nouveau Front Populaire (NFP) into the top spot among parties and alliances in France’s National Assembly – the lower house of the country’s bicameral parliament. Snap elections were called by President Emmanuel Macron in June, three years ahead of schedule, following a European Parliament race that showed his Ensemble alliance losing ground quickly among the electorate and, thereby, the confidence in his mandate. Macron and other French political entities have felt collectively threatened by the rise of right-wing Rassemblement National (RN), which managed to take on the leading role among France’s representation in the European Parliament last month. Macron likely felt it was more advantageous to call immediate elections on his terms than to potentially face a motion for a no confidence vote.

As of Monday afternoon, results from the latest election show NFP will receive a plurality of 180 seats in the 577-seat national assembly, largely subsuming slots that had previously been held by Ensemble (an alliance created by Macron in 2021) which now holds just 159 seats. NFP’s tally of seats rose by 49 while Ensemble’s tumbled by -86, joining Les Republicans (LR) as the two large entities to experience shrinkage in this round of elections. LR lost -25 seats, a third consecutive election that has seen the party’s representation in the National Assembly decline.

RN saw the most growth in terms of seats won and votes received. By combining its tally with victorious candidates from LR that received an RN endorsement – referred to by the government as the Union de l’extrême droite (UXD) – it can be calculated that RN netted 53 new seats. RN and its allied LR candidates were the top vote-getters in the most recent round of voting, receiving support from 37.1% of ballots cast. That allowed RN voters to outnumber both the NFP and Ensemble’s voters by around 3 million each, but the…