F-16 Arrivals in Ukraine Mark New Level of Escalation to Counter Russia, Herald Modernization of NATO Air Fleets

The long awaited combat debut of F-16s within Ukraine will occur at some point before the end of summer. A mixed deployment of the jets, which will see some housed within Ukraine and others deploying from air bases within nearby NATO member states, is expected to help Kyiv negate Russia’s increasingly overwhelming air superiority. The deployment of close air support and glide bombs, which often arrive uncontested, has allowed Russian ground forces across the southeastern portion of Ukraine’s frontline to advance continuously throughout the year.

Ukraine’s air force is still significantly smaller than Russia’s, but more advanced fighters should allow Ukrainian pilots to more effectively engage enemy aircraft and potentially launch their own strikes within the Russian mainland. Donations of the jets from Denmark, Norway, Belgium, and the Netherlands will clear the way for new deliveries of Lockheed Martin’s F-35s, part of broad military modernization plans now rolling out across Europe. 

Related ETF & Stocks: SPDR S&P Aerospace & Defense ETF (XAR), Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT)

At this week’s Washington summit of North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) member states, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken noted that a first batch of American-built F-16 fighter jets were being transferred to Ukraine “as we speak”. The aircraft are expected to enter combat operations at some point this summer. The promise of receiving F-16s – which has been in the works for a period of years – is finally coming true for Ukrainian forces, but it remains to be seen how effective these jets will be in stabilizing Kyiv’s defenses if not delivered in sufficient numbers.

Any amount of relief cannot come soon enough for Ukrainian forces, which are being pushed back almost constantly all along the southeastern front near the key settlements of Toretsk, Krasnohorivka, Vuhledar, and Siversk. Russian forces in the area of Avdiivka have advanced as far as 18.5 kilometers (km) to the northwest of the city since it fell under their zone of control in February. If unchecked, that move threatens to soon put the T0504 highway connecting key logistical hubs of Pokrovsk and Kostyantynivka in range of Russian artillery fire. Mapping from various independent sources shows Moscow’s forces may be as little as six kilometers from physically cutting the road, forcing supplies and manpower transiting between the cities (and then to other areas of the front line) to take long detours through alternative routes further to the west.

Russia has primarily managed to press its advantage on the eastern front by relying on its air superiority in the region and the employment of Soviet-style FAB glide bombs, which have become a staple of air assaults against fortified Ukrainian positions. MRP highlighted the increasingly critical role these cost-effective bombs are playing in the Russian war effort in May, noting that they pack hundreds – or even thousands – of kilograms in explosive weight and lack the need for any guidance systems to hit their targets. To find solutions to the new realities of 21st century war, Russia has decided to look…