Russia Batters Ukraine’s Eastern Front as US Faces Difficult Decisions on Further Pentagon Drawdowns

The flow of US security assistance to Ukraine has recently narrowed, even as Kyiv’s situation on the frontlines becomes ever-more precarious. Russian advances are now approaching key logistical hubs within the Donetsk Oblast, threatening the integrity of Ukraine’s eastern front. Though the US is still signing off on billion-dollar guarantees of long-term support in the form of direct orders with defense contractors, more than 60 withdrawals from Pentagon stockpiles seems to be taking a toll on how much equipment can be supplied in the near-term. 

Based on visual confirmations, attrition of US-supplied Bradley infantry fighting vehicles has exceeded 50% and almost a third of Ukraine’s available M1A1 Abrams tanks have been damaged or destroyed. More of these vehicles will need to be deployed to Ukraine if Washington is going to back Kyiv’s objective of regaining all of the land the Russian military and local militias have managed to occupy since 2014.

Related ETF: SPDR S&P Aerospace & Defense ETF (XAR)

With a renewed conflict between Israel and Lebanese militant group Hezbollah apparently entering a phase of further escalation, the US is finding its assets increasingly stretched across multiple fronts throughout Eastern Europe and Western Asia. The war in Ukraine is becoming particularly problematic for the US, as Kyiv’s forces in various regions of the contested Donetsk Oblast have been pushed backward almost constantly since last autumn. Despite the White House’s persistent rhetoric regarding its willingness and ability to support the Ukrainian war effort, the flow of desperately needed goods has stemmed significantly compared to the level of materials provided at earlier stages of the conflict. Per the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), the drawdown of Pentagon stockpiles for near-term shipment to Ukraine during the initial 23 months following Russia’s formal invasion of the country amounted to an average of $1.14 billion per month. In the four months since Congress passed the latest aid package, monthly US drawdown packages have averaged just $569 million.

Russian advances now threaten key rail and road connections that connect the vital logistical hubs of Kostyantynivka and Pokrovsk. Though there are still several smaller settlements – as well as numerous trench lines and other fortifications – standing between Russian forces and the two cities, mapping from various independent sources indicated they are just 5.5km from the T0504 highway. That is only slightly outside of the range of Russian artillery bombardments, which could precede a ground advance to physically cut the highway. The constriction of direct transit between Kostyantynivka and Pokrovsk would slow the movement of manpower and supplies between the northern and southern portions of the Donetsk Oblast by forcing them to make long detours through back roads.

It may also compromise eventual battles for these two cities, a situation that seems increasingly likely if the momentum of Moscow’s forces is…